Interest on the U.S. national debt is now about a trillion dollars a year, in the same neighborhood as the Pentagon. Total public debt has crossed $40 trillion. A camp has formed around one answer: AI and robots will grow the country out. Washington says it as growth. The labs say it as the only way.

主张

In May 2025, David Sacks, then the White House AI and crypto lead, put it on the All-In podcast. He said he did not like America's fiscal picture at all, then asked what if the AI and robotics revolution played out in the most optimistic way over the next decade, massively deflationary, with "AI-powered robots expanding the economy massively." His point, he said, was whether the new technology provides an answer to the fiscal situation that is not currently on the table. David Sacks · All-In / Business Insider · May 2025

财政部长Scott Bessent一直在发表官方版本。债务突破40万亿美元后，他对盟友表示“全球增长是应对这堆债务的方式”。Scott Bessent · G20 remarks · August 2026 Kenneth Rogoff, writing in Foreign Affairs 当那个门槛到来时，有人描述了一个无需单一创始人的阵营：一些AI的支持者认为，这个问题会在税收激增中消失。Kenneth Rogoff · The AI Growth Paradox · August 2026

Ray Dalio has been saying the United States is past a debt threshold, and that a crisis could arrive in three years, give or take two, if the course does not change. He treats AI productivity as a historic chance to grow the burden down. He still wants the deficit near 3 percent of GDP through some mix of cuts, taxes, and lower rates. Ray Dalio · How Countries Go Broke · August 2026 他仍在为预算争论。阵营中的其他人则将不受约束的机器视为缺失的财政工具。

最响亮的那种版本根本不提“如果”。2026年2月，在Dwarkesh Podcast, 埃隆·马斯克将利息账单视为普通政治的终结。他说，没有人工智能和机器人技术，这个国家就彻底完蛋了。

In the absence of AI and robotics, we're actually totally screwed because the national debt is piling up like crazy. The interest payments to national debt exceed the military budget, which is a trillion dollars. So we have over a trillion dollars just in interest payments. I was pretty concerned about that. Maybe if I spend some time, we can slow down the bankruptcy of the United States and give us enough time for the AI and robots to help solve the national debt.

或者不帮忙解决，它是唯一能解决国家债务的东西。没有AI和机器人，我们国家1000%会破产，并走向国家失败。没有其他东西能解决国债。我们只需要足够的时间来构建AI和机器人，以免在此之前破产。

Elon Musk · Dwarkesh Podcast · February 2026

他已在 2025 年底的 Nikhil Kamath 节目以及后来的 Fox Business 上测试过这一说法：AI 和机器人「几乎是唯一能解决美国债务危机的东西」。Elon Musk · Fox Business / Kamath interview · December 2025 建得够快，利息就会消融。建不起来，国家就会失败。

The interest bill

利息成本已与军费预算相当。到 2026 年 8 月，公共债务总额已超过 40 万亿美元。一个国家可以通过将越来越多的税款交给过去的支出而缓慢失败。

The instrument

能提高产出的有用机器很普通。起草合同的软件、生产线上的机械臂。国家曾通过更多生产摆脱糟糕的债务比率。它们也曾通胀和违约。这些是财政工具。Superintelligence无法瞄准国债的息票。

萨克斯问机器人是否提供了不在讨论范围内的答案。贝森特称增长是处理债务山的方式。马斯克去掉了问号：没有其他东西能解决它。在同几个月他说过humans are unlikely to stay in charge of digital superintelligence, that control would be vanity, that AI and robots will dominate everything. The hard version of the bet sells the same destination as a way to keep paying Treasuries. There is no "we" in that payoff if it works. A successor mind does not service the national debt. GDP that no longer answers to voters is not a surplus. If the systems stay tools, you did not need superintelligence to help with productivity. If they do not stay tools, solvency is a story the powerless tell about the powerful.

通往那里的道路同样靠更多借贷支撑。同样的繁荣正建立在数据中心的企业债务和尚未弥合的联邦赤字之上。你可以想要生产线上的机械臂，却仍拒绝后继心智。

接下来

不要建造人工超级智能。超级智能无法被控制。用普通方式支付利息，或者用普通方式失败。Politics and verification 让背叛可见的那些方式，就是让你实现它的方法。

一万亿美元的利息不是构建无人能控制的心智的理由。永远不要建造它.